The surge in oil prices and the bearish outlook on BTC (more often seen as a risk asset) are actually interconnected. As reports of small electric scooters in Iran spreading on social media increase, concerns about the U.S. potentially falling into a quagmire of war are also rising.

Trump stated in early March that military actions would last 4-5 weeks. By early April 2026, if the Iranian regime does not collapse as quickly as expected and international oil prices remain above $110, Trump could face significant TACO pressure.
High oil prices have driven up inflation expectations, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma when setting interest rate policies—maintaining high rates to fight inflation could further weaken the already fragile job market; cutting rates to stimulate the economy might lead to runaway inflation. If both are combined, resulting in stagflation would be even more terrifying.
Of course, crypto is also closely tied to the interests of the Trump family. If BTC really drops to $45,000, their crypto holdings would also suffer significant losses.
I tend to believe Trump will soon find an appropriate opportunity to declare the military operation a “complete success,” then quickly end this war.