2026 Bitcoin Trading Strategy Summary:

1. First, cancel all technical analysts, especially those who hold minute and hourly charts and analyze endlessly, drawing lines on charts like master artists—unsubscribe and unfollow all of them! Their analysis of price movements is no different from rolling dice to bet on ups and downs.

Most technical analysts in the market, especially those obsessed with minute and hourly charts, drawing frantic lines and marking complex patterns, are fundamentally unrelated to profitable trading. Short-term K-line fluctuations are full of randomness, heavily influenced by news, pump-and-dump schemes, and exchange manipulations. Support, resistance, and trend lines can be easily broken by the next K-line. Their analysis is almost as reliable as dice rolls predicting ups and downs; their core profits come from traffic, courses, and communities, not genuine trading gains. Continuing to follow them will only disturb your mindset with frequent predictions of price movements, trapping you in a vicious cycle of “chasing highs and selling lows, frequent operations.” The first step is to cancel all subscriptions and unfollow, shifting your focus from ineffective short-term noise to the larger cycles that truly determine profit and loss.

2. Expand your trading perspective; don’t fixate on minute or hourly charts. Study the entire macro cycle—how Bitcoin’s four-year cycle unfolds. Remember the pattern of 3 years of bull markets and 1 year of bear markets, and stick to a bullish stance during bull markets (only go long) and a bearish stance during bear markets (only go short).

The core law of Bitcoin is the four-year halving cycle, which underpins all market movements and far surpasses any short-term technical indicators. Remember this fundamental rule: 3 years of bull markets, 1 year of bear markets—this cycle has been repeatedly validated by history. The core principle of trading is to follow the trend:

In a bull market, resolutely go long, only buy longs, and avoid shorting. Even if there are corrections or crashes, they are minor fluctuations within the larger trend; betting against the trend is likely to be wiped out by the market.

In a bear market, resolutely go short, only short, and avoid longing. Rebounds in a bear market are often traps to lure longs; bottom-fishing against the trend can lead to deep losses. Abandon the obsession with guessing tops and bottoms, don’t get caught up in short-term ups and downs, and follow the macro cycle for one-sided trades—that’s the fundamental logic for making big money in crypto.

3. Abandon short-term trading, switch to long-term positions held for months or more. Be confident in holding profitable positions in the right direction; making big money isn’t about technical skills but about patience—steadily holding profitable trades and closing losing ones.

90% of retail traders’ losses come from frequent short-term trading: taking profits and then rushing out, holding onto small losses, with fees and slippage eroding capital repeatedly, ending in a fruitless hustle. True big money isn’t “trading” but “taking out”—it’s about “sitting” well. Extend your trading cycle, hold positions for months, and stick firmly to trades aligned with the macro trend:

- For profitable trades in the right direction: hold confidently, ride the main upward or downward waves through the entire cycle, and avoid being shaken out by small fluctuations.

- For losing trades in the wrong direction: close decisively, avoid wishful thinking, don’t hold onto losing positions or average down. Short-term trading is speculation; long-term following the cycle is investing. Abandon short-term chasing, reduce internal friction, and embrace certainty.

4. Adjust your contract leverage to below 3x. High leverage is just giving money away—working for the exchange.

Leverage in crypto contracts is the biggest trap. High leverage = actively giving money to the exchange. Small fluctuations on minute or hourly charts, with leverage over 10x or 20x, can lead to liquidation even if you correctly predict the trend, as interim pullbacks can wipe you out. Using leverage below 3x balances gains and risks:

- Provides enough tolerance to withstand normal market fluctuations within a cycle.

- Prevents liquidation from short-term volatility, allowing you to stick to long-term logic.

- Avoids being exploited by exchange fees and liquidation rules. Leverage is a tool to amplify trends, not a gamble. Low leverage means longer survival and more stable profits.

5. Add to longs at support levels or Fibonacci retracement zones of 38.2%-50%, prioritizing retracement entries to lower costs; alternatively, add after a breakout of resistance or pattern confirmation (lightweight). For shorts, do similarly...

Adding to positions isn’t about chasing highs but about lowering costs and controlling risk—strict rules are essential:

- Long entries: wait for retracements to key support or Fibonacci zones (38.2%-50%) to add, reducing average cost and increasing safety; or wait for a confirmed breakout of resistance or pattern before adding (lightweight). No chasing or impulsive entries.

- Short entries: follow the same logic—wait for rebounds to key resistance or Fibonacci zones, or after a breakdown of support. Reckless adding turns small losses into deep traps. Strict adherence to entry rules improves cost basis and reduces risk.

6. Black swan events are unavoidable! Don’t invest all your funds in the market. Never risk more than 10% of your total capital on a single loss. Keep some reserves—“as long as the green mountains remain, you need not worry about firewood.”

Crypto black swans (sudden policy changes, exchange collapses, extreme market conditions) are unpredictable and uncontrollable. The only way to cope is to implement risk control in advance. Two ironclad rules:

- Never invest all your funds; always keep sufficient reserve capital. Never go all-in or gamble everything.

- Limit maximum loss per trade to no more than 10% of your total capital. The primary goal isn’t making big money but surviving. As long as your principal remains, you can recover when the macro cycle turns; once your capital is wiped out, no market movement can help you.

7. During bull markets, use quarterly coin-margined delivery contracts for trading; perpetual contracts with annualized funding rates over 15% are unsustainable. During bear markets, use perpetual U contracts for shorting and earn some funding fees.

Different market conditions require different contract types to save costs and even earn extra income—this is the difference between professionals and retail traders:

- Bull market longs: prioritize quarterly coin-margined delivery contracts. Perpetual contracts often have funding rates exceeding 15% annually, which continuously erodes long-term holdings; quarterly delivery contracts have no high-frequency funding fees, suitable for long-term positions, perfectly fitting the bull market logic.

- Bear market shorts: prioritize perpetual U contracts. In a bear market, perpetual contracts tend to have funding fees favoring shorts, allowing you to profit from falling prices and earn funding fees simultaneously—double benefits.

Summary:

The core of this system is to eliminate mysticism, emotional trading, and short-term speculation, returning to the fundamental cycle laws of cryptocurrencies. Under compliant trading, avoiding analyst noise, holding firmly to the four-year macro cycle, using low leverage for long-term positions, strictly following entry and risk management rules, and employing tools precisely are the only paths to survive bull and bear markets and consistently earn big cycle profits. Trading isn’t about technical skills or luck; it’s about understanding the laws and maintaining discipline.