Bitcoin Price Steady Today, But Something is Stirring

Today, for now, it seems to be a relatively calm day concerning the price movement of Bitcoin

However, there are some signals indicating possible movements either during the day or in the coming days

The fact is that fear still dominates the financial markets, particularly for higher-risk assets like Bitcoin, so some developments are to be expected. The VIX index has been quite volatile lately, and this could theoretically also heavily influence the performance of BTCUSD

Bitcoin Price Trend Today

At this moment, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates between $70,000 and $71,000.

This level was reached only two days ago, whereas previously it had remained below for almost a month

Since the end of February, there have been three small upswings

The first occurred on February 28 itself, when it surged from $63,000 to $68,000 in less than 24 hours, only to return to $65,000 the following day

The second on March 2, when it jumped from $65,000 to $70,000 in just three hours, only to return to $66,000 the following day

The third occurred the day before yesterday, when it went from $67,000 to $74,000 in less than 24 hours, only to begin a decline that may still be ongoing

As of yesterday, it seemed to have stabilized around $71,000, but today things might change

To be honest, for now, trading volumes are low, so the current price movements should be considered insignificant. However, this also happened yesterday, and then when the American markets reopened, they rose significantly

The VIX

The main issue, from mid-January onwards, is fear

The VIX is an index that measures the implied volatility on the main U.S. stock index (the S&P500), and is commonly regarded as the “fear index” concerning the American stock market

Just before mid-January, it was below 17 points, which is a medium-low level but not extremely low

Starting from January 13, it began to climb, first above 18 points, and then in February even above 20 points

With Israel’s attack on Iran last weekend, it surged above 22 points, then went on to exceed 23 points

The local peak was reached on Tuesday well above 24 points

In particular, the rise of the VIX at the end of February and the beginning of March triggered significant sell-offs in Bitcoin, whose price during those days dropped from $70,000 to $65,000

However, if at the end of February the price of Bitcoin was $70,000 with a VIX at around 20 points, today it is approximately $70,000 with a VIX above 23 points. This should theoretically be interpreted as a good sign, but the analysis of whale behavior makes it much less interesting

The Whales

In recent weeks, as the price dropped from $70,000 to around $67,000, whales have been buying Bitcoin

This is particularly evident when analyzing the trend of BTC on crypto exchanges, as these have recently declined, reaching new all-time lows for this cycle

The fact is that those who deposit BTC on a crypto exchange usually do so to sell them, so this metric helps to get an idea of the selling pressure

It is therefore possible to state that, in reality, in recent days the selling pressure of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges has collapsed

This aligns with the $1.1 billion that flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first three days of this week

However, yesterday there was a change

In fact, not only have ETFs experienced outflows exceeding $200 million, but more importantly, whales have started selling

To be honest, the whales have been buying Bitcoin in recent days and weeks primarily at a price between $67,000 and $70,000, and starting mainly from the day before yesterday, they began selling at a price above $71,000.

The Strategy of the Whales

However, it is important to make a significant distinction

In fact, on one hand, we have the selling pressure of BTC on exchanges dropping to the lowest of this cycle, while on the other hand, we have whales selling Bitcoin above $71,000

To understand this apparent contradiction, it is important to add a very significant detail. In fact, the whales are indeed selling these days, but in quantities far smaller than what they have accumulated in recent times

In other words, the strategy of the whales during this period appears to be twofold, especially since it is by no means certain that they all behave in the same way

On one hand, we most likely have some whales who bought below $70,000, possibly on leverage, with the sole intention of trading in the short or at most medium-short term, and therefore above $71,000 they are already cashing in

On the other hand, we probably have other whales, perhaps the majority, who have purchased instead for holding or medium to medium-long term trading

The Forecasts

At this moment, in light of the situation just described, there are speculations about a possible short-term correction in the price of Bitcoin.

Much, to be honest, will depend on the VIX, which today seems to be on the rise (the trend of BTCUSD tends to be inversely correlated with that of the VIX)

It should be noted, however, that recently the VIX has been very volatile, so it can move quickly and significantly in both directions

In the event that the VIX indeed rises, triggering a Bitcoin correction, this could also prove to be short-lived, in the hypothetical scenario where the VIX then falls again, as has happened in the past two weeks

Unfortunately, the trend of the VIX is largely unpredictable, so it is pointless to try to make forecasts about it. However, the whales cashing in BTC above $71,000, which they just bought below $70,000, suggest that this might indeed be the short-term scenario

On the other hand, the whales accumulating BTC suggest that in the medium term, the price of Bitcoin might also end up rising, and since they seem to be in the majority compared to others, it cannot be ruled out that things might improve in the coming months

These remain hypotheses, not actual forecasts, precisely because the VIX is unpredictable. As long as fear continues to dominate the financial markets of higher-risk assets, making medium to short-term predictions proves to be too risky.