Ethereum maintains solid support at $1,900 amid triangle pressure: Calculate the height of the pattern to forecast the next price target

As of now (March 2026), Ethereum is trading at $2.03K with positive developments over the past week (+8.92%). However, considering the volatility in the previous month when a series of spot ETF sell pressures caused prices to decline, the height of the current triangle pattern becomes a key factor in assessing the market’s next momentum. By analyzing the gap between support and resistance levels, traders can forecast potential price ranges after a breakout.

Sell pressure from spot ETFs: $129 million fund withdrawal shifts balance

On February 11, Ethereum experienced one of the largest fund withdrawals from spot ETFs since their launch. According to data from SoSoValue, the total net outflow on that day reached $129.18 million, with Fidelity’s FETH fund leading the sell-off at $67.99 million. This event occurred while the total net assets of ETH spot funds remained at $11.27 billion, accounting for 4.78% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization.

Notably, the net inflow still remained positive at $11.75 billion, but recent structural trends show institutional investors are reducing risk rather than accumulating at lower levels. When both spot and ETF flows turn negative simultaneously, selling pressure becomes more evident, causing prices to fall below the $2,000 threshold in subsequent days. Major asset management firms like BlackRock and Grayscale reported smaller withdrawals, but the overall trend indicates dispersed selling pressure across multiple issuers.

Daily chart: Ethereum breaks through key moving averages

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum has fallen below all major EMA lines. Specifically, the 20-day EMA is at $2,388, the 50-day EMA at $3,182, and the 100-day EMA at $3,003. Bollinger Bands show the middle band at $1,595, while the current price is approaching $2.03K after a sharp decline from the December high above $4,000.

The Supertrend indicator signals a bearish trend at $2,472, clearly confirming the downward momentum. Prices have broken below the psychological $2,000 level in recent days. The downtrend from the August peak continues to restrict recovery attempts. The $1,900 zone now acts as immediate support, protecting the market from deeper declines.

Ethereum lost the 20-day EMA at the end of January, and efforts to regain this level have so far failed. The price structure has shifted from accumulation to breakdown, entering a clear correction cycle. To turn optimistic, Ethereum needs to close above $2,388 to reverse the 20-day EMA and signal the first exhaustion of the downtrend, but current momentum remains focused on lower targets.

Without improved ETF fund flows, the next support zone is near $1,750, where buyers previously stepped in during earlier corrections. Breaking below $1,750 would open the door to deeper risks toward $1,595.

1-hour timeframe: Symmetrical triangle pattern and height projection for target forecasting

On the 1-hour chart, Ethereum is trapped within a symmetrical triangle pattern with prices compressed near the top at $1,976. The Parabolic SAR provides immediate resistance at $1,986. RSI remains neutral at 54.36 but shows signs of recovery after reaching oversold territory.

The pattern indicates that prices are forming higher lows from a base of $1,830. Resistance near $2,000 is holding back the market. The compression suggests an imminent breakout or breakdown. The height of the triangle (approximately $200, from $1,900 to $2,100) will determine the potential range after the breakout. If upward, targets could reach $2,200–$2,300. If downward, prices could fall to $1,700–$1,800.

Buyers are trying to defend the lower edge of the triangle after the drop from $2,150. A breakout above $2,000 with increased volume would invalidate the bearish scenario and bring $2,150 back into play. Conversely, a breakdown below $1,900 could lead to $1,750, with deeper risks toward $1,595 if selling pressure intensifies.

Ethereum upgrades in 2026: Glamsterdam and Hegota – Upcoming technical improvements

Ethereum is preparing for two major upgrades in 2026 that will reshape the network’s capabilities. The Glamsterdam upgrade, expected in the first half of the year, introduces Proposer-Builder Separation and Block-Level Access Lists to improve fairness in MEV (Maximal Extractable Value) and censorship resistance.

Following that, the Hegota update scheduled for late 2026 will implement Verkle Trees technology to enhance state data access and scalability. Developers are currently testing on blob-devnet-0 to enable mainnet to store more blobs, despite ongoing integration issues with Prysm and Lighthouse clients.

The bals-devnet-2 testnet launched on February 4, with epbs-devnet-0 expected to deploy by the end of February. These upgrades represent significant technical advancements. However, the market has yet to clearly reflect their impact on current prices. Recent price movements mainly reflect short-term selling pressure rather than expectations of upcoming network improvements.

If ETF fund flows stabilize and technical levels remain firm, these upgrades could eventually provide support as 2026 progresses into later phases. Currently, the market is in a “re-pricing” phase before a potential rebound driven by these positive developments.

Two trading scenarios: Breakout or breakdown around $2,000

Bullish scenario: If Ethereum closes above $2,000 with increased volume and ETF flows improve, the triangle pattern could reverse. The next target would be $2,150, then $2,388, confirming the exhaustion of the downtrend. Holding above $2,388 could allow further gains, but external factors and institutional money will influence the trajectory.

Bearish scenario: A clear breakdown below $1,900 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend, opening the door to $1,750. The triangle height suggests a potential decline of about $200 if resolved downward. Continued selling pressure could push risks toward $1,595 (middle Bollinger Band). Losing $1,900 would mark a new multi-month low.

Ethereum’s next move depends entirely on whether prices can hold above $1,900 and reclaim the $2,000 resistance of the triangle. The stability of ETF flows will be the key determinant. With a market cap of approximately $244.72 billion (March update) and representing 9.90% of the total crypto market, Ethereum remains the second-largest in the ecosystem, making its price action a critical indicator for the entire market.