Gate News, March 19 — Bitcoin recently briefly broke above $74,000 but failed to establish a firm hold above the key zone. It has since pulled back to around $70,800, fluctuating within a range. Although the price appears to be trending upward on the surface, on-chain data and capital behavior indicate that this rally still faces structural resistance.
The main pressure comes from ongoing selling by short-term holders. Data shows that during the price rally, short-term holders realized profits rapidly, with a 12-hour average reaching about $18.4 million per hour. This behavior is similar to previous cycles: when prices approach highs, funds tend to cash out profits, weakening upward momentum and making breakthroughs difficult to sustain.
From a cyclical perspective, this pattern resembles a bear market rebound rather than a clear bull market signal. The profit-taking supply indicator is currently around 60%, which is within a critical historical range. In past cycles, this indicator needed to rise above 75% to typically signal a more stable upward phase. While the current level shows some recovery signs, it is not yet enough to confirm a trend reversal.
Technically, Bitcoin remains within an upward channel, but multiple attempts to break through the $72,000 to $75,000 range have failed, indicating significant selling pressure above. If short-term selling continues, the price could fall below the psychological support of $70,000 and further test the $68,800 or even $66,200 zones.
On the other hand, if capital can establish effective support around $70,000 and gradually absorb short-term profit-taking, the market may attempt to rally again. Successfully holding above $72,000 and retesting this support could open the way for another push toward $75,000.
Currently, Bitcoin’s movement resembles a range-bound oscillation driven by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The key variables are the speed of selling pressure release and whether new funds can follow in. The short-term direction remains uncertain, and the market is waiting for more definitive signals.
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