FBI warns that Iran may launch "suicide drones" from offshore to attack California; how likely is this?

FBI Issues Urgent Alert to All California Law Enforcement, Warning of Possible Drone Attacks from Unidentified Ships Off U.S. Coast by Iran; Trump Responds “Not Worried.”
(Background: Trump “Temporarily Not Seizing Iran’s Oil”: Further Blockade of Hormuz Strait Would Hit 20 Times Harder, EU Releases Oil Reserves in Response)
(Additional Context: Understanding Trump’s “War Scenario” — Ten Signals Investors Must Know)

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• Credibility of Intelligence Questioned, Officials Say: “Wanting to Do It Doesn’t Mean They Can”
• California on Alert, Trump Says Not Worried
• Department of Homeland Security: Low Likelihood of Large-Scale Attack

The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) recently issued an emergency alert to California law enforcement agencies, stating that based on intelligence obtained in early February 2026, Iran may be planning to launch a surprise attack using its self-made “suicide” drones from an unverified ship off the U.S. coast targeting locations within California.

However, the FBI also noted that there is currently no further information regarding the timing, method, specific targets, or perpetrators of the attack.

Credibility of Intelligence Questioned, Officials Say: “Wanting to Do It Doesn’t Mean They Can”

Senior security officials classify this intelligence as “unverified intent information,” meaning hostile forces may have expressed such intentions but do not necessarily have the capability to carry them out. One law enforcement officer admitted:

The intelligence community collects various threat signals daily, many of which only indicate that adversaries might want to harm the U.S., not that they have concrete plans to do so.

Additionally, senior officials revealed that the ongoing 12-day joint bombing campaign by the U.S. and Israel has significantly weakened Iran’s military capabilities. Based on this, intelligence agencies believe Iran’s ability to execute such long-range attacks “may now be quite limited.”

California on Alert, Trump Says Not Worried

California, home to the largest Iranian-American population in the U.S., with an estimated 500,000 residents, has not yet clarified whether this is one of the reasons it is considered a potential target. California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that he has noted the intelligence but has not discussed it directly with President Trump. He called on the government to clarify the ultimate goals of any potential conflict and emphasized:

Currently, we see no imminent threat, but we remain prepared to respond to any emergency.

Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department has increased patrols at religious sites, cultural institutions, and other key locations.

When asked on the 11th whether he is worried about an attack on the U.S. mainland, Trump briefly responded: “No, I am not worried.”

Department of Homeland Security: Low Likelihood of Large-Scale Attack

According to a DHS assessment, Iran and its proxy forces may indeed carry out targeted attacks against the U.S., but the likelihood of a large-scale assault is low. Besides the drone threat, the U.S. is also monitoring the use of drone technology by Mexican drug cartels and the potential for Iran to launch cyberattacks.