Analyst: US February inflation data may raise concerns, with core services sector performance becoming a focal point

Gate News reports that on March 11, Tastylive Global Macro Head Ilya Spivak pointed out that the next market catalyst is likely to come from upcoming inflation data. Economists expect the US February overall CPI to increase by 2.4% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.5%. Spivak noted that there are key risks beneath the surface of the data: the important driver of January CPI data was the decline in energy prices’ contribution to overall inflation, but given that oil prices started rising again in early 2026, reproducing this situation is extremely difficult. He emphasized that traders will closely watch whether core price growth—especially in services—continues to decline slightly. If core services prices keep falling, it could boost market hopes for inflation normalization after Middle East conflicts subside, helping to stabilize market sentiment; conversely, fragile financial markets could experience risk-off volatility again, with investors facing the possibility of interest rates remaining high for a longer period, which would negatively impact stocks, bonds, and currencies other than the US dollar.