Is this the perfect buying point for Bitcoin? PlanB updates the S2F model: the average price in this cycle is expected to reach $500,000

CryptoQuantitative analyst PlanB, creator of the Bitcoin prediction model “S2F (Stock-to-Flow Ratio),” gained fame for predicting that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. However, he was later criticized for inaccurate forecasts. Now, he has once again shocked the market with a Bitcoin price outlook, believing that during the current market cycle from 2024 to 2028, Bitcoin’s average price could reach $500,000.

This prediction comes from PlanB’s latest release of the S2F model. Although Bitcoin’s recent price has been highly volatile and is still hovering around $67,000, based on the historical range associated with the model, PlanB considers now an excellent time to buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Outlook. Source: PlanB

What is the S2F Model?
The “S2F model” quantifies an asset’s scarcity by dividing its “stock (supply)” by its “flow (annual production),” serving as a technical indicator to assess price trends. Since Bitcoin undergoes a halving of block rewards every four years, the new supply is halved accordingly. According to the S2F logic, when the growth rate of supply continues to decline and scarcity increases, it will likely generate strong upward momentum for the price.

In the latest chart, the S2F forecast curve shows a significant jump after the 2024 halving, pointing to a price range of about $500,000.

A Deep Dive into PlanB’s Latest Outlook: Three Core Points
1. Past predictions have been repeatedly accurate: PlanB emphasizes that the S2F model has provided valuable price ranges across multiple cycles. He notes that when he started buying Bitcoin in 2015 at around $400, and when Bitcoin dropped below $4,000 in 2019, the model predicted a potential rise to $55,000, which was later achieved as the market indeed surpassed that target.

2. The market is not overheated: From a technical perspective, PlanB also believes Bitcoin has not entered an overbought phase. The blue and green dots on the chart represent the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, indicating the current market remains relatively healthy. Based on the model, the current price of about $67,000 may just be the starting point toward the cycle’s average price, still undervalued.

3. No investment is without risk; watch out for model blind spots: However, PlanB admits that the S2F model is not infallible. In fact, it has faced criticism for overemphasizing supply-side changes while neglecting demand-side market dynamics.