Challenge the Gold Standard! Bitwise Investment Chief Reiterates: Bitcoin Could Soar to "1 Million USD"

As institutional funds continue to pour in, the market’s imagination of the “long-term target price of Bitcoin” has been ignited again. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of digital asset management company Bitwise, recently reiterated this “Bitcoin will eventually hit the $100K mark”。 He pointed out,If Bitcoin is regarded as an asset capable of challenging its status as gold in the global store of value market, its long-term explosive power will be extremely clear. Matt Hougan mentioned in an investment memo titled “How Bitcoin is Moving Towards $100K,”**Investors tend to underestimate Bitcoin’s potential because they ignore the growth rate of the store of value market.**He emphasized that to accurately estimate the reasonable value of Bitcoin, it is necessary to look at the overall size of this market and estimate how much market share Bitcoin can win from it in the future. Matt Hougan estimates that the global store of value market is currently approaching $38 trillion, with gold accounting for about $36 trillion and Bitcoin accounting for about $1.4 trillion. In other words,Bitcoin currently has a market share of less than 4%; If it wants to reach $100 under the existing market size, Bitcoin will have to eat more than half of the market share. Don’t ignore the expansion rate of the “store of value market” itself The “$1000” number may sound like a fantasy, but Matt Hougan pointed out,When evaluating Bitcoin’s potential, many people often overlook a key fact: the global store of value market itself continues to expand. He looked back at history and pointed out that when the first gold ETF in the United States came out in 2004, the total value of the overall gold market was only about $2.5 trillion; Today, this number has skyrocketed to nearly $40 trillion, translating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%. The driving force behind this is the high debt of governments around the world, geopolitical turmoil, and long-term loose monetary policy. Matt Hougan further deduced:Assuming the store of value market continues to grow at the same pace, the total size will rise to $121 trillion over the next 10 years. In such a scenario, Bitcoin does not even need to eat more than half of the country, as long as it grabs about 17% of the market share, the currency price can successfully soar over the $100 mark. The main force on Wall Street entered: long-term volatility converged, and the institutional ratio was raised The recent developments in the cryptocurrency market have provided strong support for Matt Hougan’s optimistic vision. He analyzed that a few years ago, the United States had not approved a Bitcoin ETF, and institutional participation was quite limited. On the other hand, nowadays,Bitcoin spot ETFs have jumped to become the fastest-growing ETF products in historyEven heavyweight institutions such as the Harvard endowment and the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund have also included Bitcoin in their asset allocations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility is converging. Matt Hougan observed.Many professional traders have significantly increased the proportion of Bitcoin portfolio recommendations from around 1% in the early days to 5%. Risks remain, but they can also be underestimated Of course, Matt Hougan also admits that investing is not without risk. For example,The store of value market may not expand as strongly as it has been in the past 20 years, or Bitcoin may face a bottleneck of stagnant market share. However, he also emphasized,If the market’s panic about the depreciation of government debt and fiat currencies continues to intensify, detonating a frenzy of funds into alternative store-of-value assets, so his current estimate may be “too conservative”:

In my opinion, the most basic scenario is that the store of value market will continue its past growth trend, and Bitcoin’s market share will also rise. This trend will push the price of Bitcoin to very, very much higher levels than it is now.

In fact, this is not the first time Matt Hougan has thrown out a long-term sky-high price prediction for Bitcoin. As early as 2023, he had predicted that Bitcoin would exceed $100 in 2032; Last month, he even said that Bitcoin is expected to rise to $650 in the next 20 years. According to CoinGecko market data, Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,770, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours.

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