Gate Research: BTC and ETH Enter Short-Term Consolidation ｜ Stablecoin Liquidity Remains Elevated

Summary

• Both BTC and ETH entered a short-term consolidation phase this week after rallying to local highs, with their price centers moving lower and technical indicators showing slowing rebound momentum.

• Total stablecoin market capitalization remained high at $311.68 billion, with a 24-hour change of about -0.1%, indicating that overall on-chain liquidity is still ample.

• TVL in the prediction market sector rose to around $480 million, while 7-day fees and revenue reached $2.30 million and $1.65 million respectively, showing continued capital inflows and trading activity.

• The RWA sector continued to expand, with total on-chain market capitalization rising to $22.817 billion and active market capitalization reaching $16.245 billion, indicating that the tokenization narrative for real-world assets continues to strengthen.

• Over the next 7 days, the major token unlocks will mainly include ZRO, RIVER, and H, at approximately $54.50 million, $29.17 million, and $10.85 million respectively. Potential sell pressure should be monitored.

Market Overview

Market Commentary

• BTC Market Update — Over the past day this week, BTC broadly showed a pattern of “weak consolidation after a rally and pullback.” After peaking around $76,000, the price continued to retrace and has now fallen back to a narrow range around $70,800. From the moving average structure, MA5 and MA10 have both moved lower and are now close to the current price, while MA30 stands above at $72,363. The short-term moving average system has shifted into a bearish alignment, indicating that the market remains in a repair phase in the near term. Although MACD shows narrowing negative histogram bars, both the fast and slow lines remain at low levels, suggesting that bearish momentum has weakened somewhat, but the trend has not fully reversed. In the short term, key attention should be paid to support around $70,500. If this level breaks, BTC may further decline toward the $69,000 to $68,500 range. If it can reclaim $71,000 and effectively recover above MA10, it may attempt a rebound toward the area above $72,000.

• ETH Market Update — This week, ETH fell back quickly after touching a high near $2,385, and is currently stabilizing around $2,195, showing an overall pattern of “sideways repair after a sharp drop.” In terms of moving averages, MA5 and MA10 are basically close to the current price, while MA30 is around $2,247, indicating that short-term price action is still running below the medium-term moving average and the trend has not fully recovered. MACD is also at a low level, with a shortening histogram, showing that selling pressure is easing at the margin, though follow-through buying remains relatively limited. If ETH can hold above the $2,190 to $2,200 range, it may later challenge the $2,240 to $2,250 zone. If it falls below $2,150 again, it may continue seeking support near $2,100.

• Altcoins — Judging from mainstream token quotes and market sentiment, market divergence remains quite evident at present. Assets such as BTC, GT, TAO, and WIFI are relatively weak, while ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LINK have seen modest rebounds, reflecting continued sector rotation in capital flows, though overall risk appetite has not fully recovered.

• Stablecoins — Total stablecoin market capitalization currently stands at about $311.676 billion. Of this, USDT accounts for approximately $184.090 billion, USDC about $79.427 billion, while stablecoins such as USDS, USDe, and USD1 remain relatively stable.

• Gas Fees — Ethereum network gas fees generally remained below 0.3 Gwei over the past week. The daily peak was 0.204 Gwei, and as of March 19, the average gas fee for the day was 0.056 Gwei.

Trending Tokens

Over the past 24 hours, the altcoin market followed the major coins in showing a structurally broad-based decline. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 26. Although this marks some recovery from the previous state of extreme fear, it remains in the “Fear” zone, reflecting that market sentiment is still cautious. The basis for altcoin moves remains highly dependent on sideways consolidation in the major coins, with relatively strong short-term momentum chasing and persistent localized volatility risk.

ETN Electroneum（+33.47%，Market Cap: $22.64M）

According to Gate market data, ETN is currently trading at $0.0012888, up 33.47% over the past 24 hours. Electroneum is a cryptocurrency focused on mobile device users, aiming to drive mass adoption of crypto through its easy-to-use app and low transaction fees.

Recently, positive market expectations around its EVM compatibility and mass-adoption potential have helped push ETN higher.

ENJ Enjin Coin (+25.15%，Market Cap: $51.96M）

According to Gate market data, ENJ is currently trading at $0.02557, up 25.15% over the past 24 hours. Enjin Coin is a blockchain solutions platform for the gaming industry, allowing developers to create and manage blockchain-based virtual goods.

Recently, ENJ has performed strongly, with trading volume increasing significantly, likely supported by continued positive sentiment around gaming and metaverse-related themes.

SIREN Siren (+19.63%，Market Cap: $651m）

According to Gate market data, SIREN is currently trading at $0.89443, up 19.63% over the past 24 hours. Siren is a decentralized options protocol that allows users to trade options on various crypto assets.

Recently, SIREN has shown strong performance with significantly increased trading volume, which may be related to rising market interest in its decentralized options protocol and an overall improvement in sentiment.

Key Market Data Highlights

Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Unchanged as Expected, Will Raise Rates “Gradually” Based on Economic and Price Trends

After the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged while signaling a hawkish bias, the U.S. dollar strengthened and the yen once approached a two-year low, shifting market attention to the Bank of Japan’s policy direction. On March 19, the BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the second consecutive meeting with no change. The BOJ stated that if economic and price trends develop in line with forecasts, it will continue raising the policy rate in accordance with improvements in the economy and inflation. Governor Kazuo Ueda may emphasize a “gradual” rate-hike path, while the Japanese government remains alert to exchange-rate volatility. Conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, increasing inflation uncertainty and making the policy tradeoff between “controlling inflation vs. supporting growth” more complex for central banks globally, including Japan. The BOJ is unlikely to hike aggressively in the short term, meaning yen weakness is more structural than merely short-term volatility. If oil prices continue rising and imported inflation intensifies, Japan’s policy stance may be forced in a more hawkish direction, which would become a key variable for a future yen reversal.

Polymarket to Launch an “Intelligence Bar” in Washington Focused on Real-Time Event Monitoring

Polymarket announced that it will open an offline venue in Washington called “The Situation Room,” positioning it as the world’s first “situation monitoring” themed bar. The venue will resemble an “intelligence version of a sports bar,” integrating real-time X feeds, flight radar, Bloomberg terminals, and the platform’s data screens to continuously track major global events. This extends information consumption from online trading into an offline setting, strengthening user immersion and community attributes. By combining data flows, public sentiment, and prediction markets, Polymarket is building a closed loop of “information → judgment → trading.” However, its sustainability will depend on offline traffic, the regulatory environment, and whether it can genuinely improve users’ decision-making value; otherwise, it may lean more toward brand marketing.

Nasdaq Receives SEC Approval to Trade Tokenized Securities

According to Reuters, the SEC has approved Nasdaq’s rule change, allowing certain stocks and ETFs to be traded and settled in “tokenized form.” These tokenized securities will share the same order book, execution priority, and shareholder rights as traditional securities, and will be cleared through the Depository Trust Company (DTC). This marks the formal incorporation of blockchain technology into mainstream securities market infrastructure and promotes integration between traditional finance and on-chain systems. The key significance of this approval is not merely “putting assets on-chain,” but “same rights, same order book,” meaning blockchain is no longer a parallel system but is being embedded into the existing market structure. In the short term, this looks more like an infrastructure upgrade that improves settlement efficiency rather than a disruption of the trading paradigm. In the long run, once it expands into 24/7 trading and cross-market collateralization, it could truly reshape liquidity and capital efficiency.

Focus of the Week

Stablecoin Liquidity Remains Elevated, with Ethereum Still Dominant

According to on-chain stablecoin distribution data, total stablecoin market capitalization currently stands at about $311.676 billion, with a 24-hour change of about -0.1%, remaining overall in a high range. Among them, USDT accounts for about $184.090 billion, USDC about $79.427 billion, while stablecoins such as USDS, USDe, and USD1 have also remained relatively stable, indicating that on-chain “cash reserves” have not contracted significantly. By chain distribution, Ethereum currently accounts for about 60.52% of stablecoin liquidity and continues to maintain its dominant position, while public chains such as Solana, BSC, Base, and Tron are absorbing part of the incremental liquidity. Overall, the elevated scale of stablecoins means the market still has strong capacity to rotate into risk assets. Once macro or sentiment catalysts emerge, on-chain capital may still flow back quickly into high-beta assets.

Prediction Market TVL Rises to $480 Million, Sector Activity Continues to Increase

As of March 19, 2026, total TVL in the prediction market sector rose to $479.66 million, with approximately $2.30 million in fees and about $1.65 million in revenue over the past 7 days. Among the segmented protocols, Polymarket ranked first with $419.77 million in TVL, significantly ahead of comparable projects, showing that the concentration effect of capital and traffic on leading platforms continues to strengthen. From a market structure perspective, the increase in prediction market activity not only reflects rising user demand to trade around headline events, but also shows that “information-driven trading” continues to attract new capital. As external variables such as macro policy, political events, and sporting events continue to increase, prediction markets may maintain elevated popularity in the short term and remain one of the most topical and cash-flow-generating sectors on-chain.

RWA Sector Continues to Expand, Strengthening the On-Chain Real-World Asset Narrative

In the RWA sector, total on-chain market capitalization has now risen to $22.817 billion, active market capitalization has reached $16.245 billion, DeFi Active TVL stands at $1.205 billion, and the number of total asset issuers has reached 152. Overall, the data shows that real-world asset tokenization continues its expansion trend, with both sector size and number of participating entities growing in tandem. Structurally, tokenized funds, bonds, money market instruments, and private credit products remain the main sources of incremental growth. In an environment of increasing market volatility, the low-volatility, yield-bearing, real-income-mapped asset profile represented by RWAs is more attractive to conservative capital, which is an important reason why the sector has been able to keep expanding.

Funding Weekly Recap

According to RootData, from March 12 to March 19, 2026, capital continued flowing into payment infrastructure, Bitcoin-related asset allocation, and crypto financial services. The following were among the largest financing or M&A deals this week:

BVNK

On March 17, BVNK disclosed the completion of an $1.8 billion acquisition deal involving Mastercard.

BVNK is a service provider focused on stablecoin payments and crypto financial infrastructure, committed to offering businesses payment, settlement, and account services between fiat and digital assets, while promoting the use of stablecoins in cross-border payments and enterprise-grade financial scenarios. This acquisition shows that traditional payment institutions are further accelerating their deployment into stablecoin settlement networks and on-chain payment infrastructure. If integration proceeds smoothly, BVNK may further expand its influence in compliant payments, cross-border clearing, and enterprise stablecoin services, while promoting deeper integration between traditional payment systems and on-chain financial infrastructure.

Metaplanet

On March 16, Metaplanet completed $255 million in debt financing.

Metaplanet is a listed company that continues to strengthen its Bitcoin reserve strategy. In recent years, it has steadily increased its Bitcoin-related asset allocation through capital operations and is often viewed by the market as one of the more representative examples of a “corporate Bitcoin reserve” strategy in Asia. This round of debt financing is expected to further enhance its capital allocation flexibility and support future Bitcoin accumulation or balance-sheet optimization. The deal also reflects the continued appeal of corporate financing paths built around Bitcoin reserve strategies under the current market environment.

Eightco Holdings, Inc.

On March 13, Eightco Holdings, Inc. completed $125 million in financing, with investors including institutions such as BitMine and Kraken.

Eightco Holdings, Inc. is an enterprise supported by industrial capital and crypto-native institutions. This financing indicates that amid increased market volatility, projects with resource-synergy capabilities and business expansion potential can still secure large-scale funding. The financing is expected to further strengthen its business expansion and capital allocation capabilities, while also reflecting continued attention from trading platforms, mining capital, and related institutions toward core areas such as custody, trading infrastructure, and crypto financial services. Through these investments, relevant companies are expected to further enhance their competitiveness in the digital asset service ecosystem over the coming period.

Next Week to Watch

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist data, the market will see several major token unlocks over the next 7 days (March 20, 2026 to March 26, 2026). The top three are as follows:

• ZRO: Approximately $54.50 million worth of tokens are expected to unlock over the next 7 days, accounting for 12.6% of the relevant supply.

• RIVER: Approximately $29.17 million worth of tokens are expected to unlock over the next 7 days, accounting for 5.7% of the relevant supply.

• H: Approximately $10.85 million worth of tokens are expected to unlock over the next 7 days, accounting for 5.8% of the relevant supply.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data

• Coingecoko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap

• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/383678/crypto-com-add-quant-trader-sports-event-prediction-market-making

• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/383711/polymarket-third-party-vulnerability-hack

• Coindesk, https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/12/24/trump-media-shuffles-2-000-btc-after-fresh-bitcoin-inflows

• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising

• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/

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