Anthropic forced to take down its flagship models, what discount will IPO valuations face? You clearly think the accusations are unfounded, but you still have to comply. This is the harshest reality in the AI industry today. On June 12th, U.S. regulators launched a dual-front attack. On one side, the federal government, citing "national security export controls," demanded that Anthropic restrict foreign nationals' access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5—claiming to possess a jailbreak method. Anthropic publicly questioned: Is the evidence sufficient? Not at all. But to stay compliant, both flagship models were taken offline. On the other side, multiple state attorneys general jointly summoned OpenAI, accusing ChatGPT of "prioritizing engagement over safety," directly linking it to user deaths and campus violence. Federal export controls + state-level safety accountability, both hitting hard. Isn't Anthropic claiming to build "responsible AI"? Isn't it saying it understands alignment best? And yet? In the face of regulation, there's not even a negotiation table. Doubts are one thing, but the product is first cut. Compliance costs directly equate to giving up revenue—and that revenue is from flagship products. What does this mean for a company that could IPO as early as October? Valuation logic must be rewritten. Investors used to focus on: model capability, user growth, revenue expectations. Now there's an additional variable: your model could be taken offline at any moment due to a vague "jailbreak method," and you have no right to rebut. This policy uncertainty is called "regulatory risk premium" in IPO pricing. It used to be a page in the prospectus that no one read; now it’s a core deduction in valuation models. Anthropic expects about $1.2 billion in revenue this year, mainly from enterprise API and subscriptions. Fable 5 and Mythos 5 are main models, now taken offline—how to make up the revenue gap? Even if conditions later allow restoration, customer trust will be discounted—today’s offline, tomorrow’s also offline. Even more severe, this incident sends a message to all AI companies: "You have no right to explain, only to execute." Regulators say you're violating rules, so you must stop. Evidence? That’s for later. The product stops, customers leave, revenue disappears, stock price drops. For Anthropic, which is about to IPO, investment banks will definitely ask during pricing: which model will be taken offline next? Discounting this risk into DCF models could easily cut valuation by 20%-30%. And don’t forget, OpenAI is also under attack. Words like "user deaths," "campus violence" linked to "artificial intelligence" will chill the entire industry’s funding environment. "When compliance costs equal revenue loss, an AI company's 'moat' can overnight turn into a 'regulatory encirclement.'" Anthropic’s IPO could be as early as October. The question now is—does the market still want to assign it a valuation with "no regulatory risk"? I’m skeptical. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #Marvell大涨超11%领涨芯片板块 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Wednesday, June 10th Bitcoin and Ethereum Long-term Analysis: Low-level Consolidation Pattern, When Will the Rebound Window Arrive? After a round of decline the previous night, the overall market sentiment fell into persistent gloom. In the early morning, the price rebounded to the 622 level but faced resistance and pulled back, then entered a downward trend. The lowest price has now touched around 610, and short-term market momentum for a meaningful rebound is almost nonexistent. Many investors are currently inclined to follow the trend and look bearish, but this round of decline has already shown signs of losing momentum. The downward trend cannot continue indefinitely, nor has it made new lows. At this stage, blindly chasing short positions is not a wise choice. From the daily chart perspective, although the overall major trend remains weak, the market turning point is gradually emerging. After several days of consecutive bearish candles, the price stabilized at the 590 support level. After a period of consolidation, a bullish candlestick appeared, signaling a rebound. However, the upward momentum was insufficient, and the market shifted back into a bearish mode. Overall trading volume has not increased significantly, nor has it retraced all previous gains. This indicates that the bears no longer have enough strength to make new lows. At this moment, stubbornly shorting is likely to lead to losses. Switching to the four-hour cycle, after the price tested the 590 support earlier, it directly rebounded by about 5000 points. Subsequently, it faced resistance at around 643 and pulled back. This round of decline did not test the critical 590 support again, which suggests that the downward momentum has already exhausted. On the surface, the decline appears fierce, but there may be signs of a trap to shake out longs. The trading strategy can be bearish, but do not chase short positions. Going forward, focus on two key support levels: the first at 605, the strong support at 590. If the price tests these two levels and does not break below effectively, it presents a good opportunity for low-cost accumulation. The initial rebound target is in the 640-680 range, with subsequent targets at 745 and 820. Ethereum's movement is linked to Bitcoin; it can be positioned around 1500-1550, with upside targets at 2000, 2200, and 2400. $BTC $ETH $SOL

$ETH This wave of decline is completely in line with expectations, dropping from 2118.05 all the way down to 1664.49, friends who followed should have caught a big profit. At that time, it was clear that the fake pull was caused by insufficient funds, so I decisively told everyone to short, and now the judgment has been validated. Next, I will gradually take profits: - First close 80% to lock in gains - The remaining 20% will be observed - Set stop-loss at the cost price to protect the principal Friends who didn't follow along don't need to rush, the market never lacks opportunities, just be patient and wait for my next clear signal. ‍$BTC $SOL