2026.7.7 Daily Crypto Market Analysis

Let me start with the conclusion tonight: Today is not the start of a full bull run, but more like a repair validation after an oversold period. The only three things members really need to watch are: whether ETF fund flows can continue to rebound, whether BTC can firmly hold above $64k, and whether the stablecoin pool is expanding again. My judgment is that sentiment is noticeably better than last week, but it's not yet time to chase small-cap coins aggressively.

First, let's look at the capital side. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $265.69 million on Monday, and ETH ETFs also had small net inflows of about $20.66 million. This data is much more comfortable than last week, indicating that after a deep drop, some institutional funds have indeed come back to test the waters. However, the problem is that last week, BTC ETFs still saw net outflows of about $526.6 million overall, and ETH ETFs haven't shaken off their weakness yet. So a single-day rebound only shows buying interest, not a direct trend reversal.

How members should handle this: Tonight, don't treat a "single-day net inflow" as confirmation of a bull market. Tomorrow, first watch whether ETFs have net inflows for two to three consecutive days, and second, watch whether there is volume support when BTC approaches the $64k level. If it's only a one-day rebound and then volume shrinks and consolidates, don't chase altcoins.

Second, let's look at BTC itself. After rebounding from the early July lows, BTC briefly touched around $64.5k, but open interest has declined and spot buying is not strong enough, indicating that part of this rise was driven by short covering, not entirely by active buying re-entering the market. Simply put, shorts got squeezed, prices bounced, but the market hasn't proven there is sustained buying capital.

I believe the most critical level here is still around $64k. If it holds, there will be an opportunity to drive ETH and mainstream altcoins to continue their repair; if it doesn't hold, it will still be oscillating and digesting after the rebound. For members, if BTC doesn't firmly hold $64k, only buy altcoins on dips and for defense, and don't treat short-term rallies as the start of a new uptrend.

Third, let's look at the ammunition on the exchange. DeFiLlama data shows that the total stablecoin market cap is approximately $64k, down 0.11% in the last 7 days and down 1.26% in the last 30 days, with USDT accounting for about 59.03%. The meaning of this data is straightforward: money is still in the market, the pool hasn't collapsed, but there is no clear sign of large-scale new capital entering. Without expansion of the capital pool, it's harder for altcoins to see broad-based gains.

How members should understand this: When the total stablecoin supply hasn't expanded significantly, the market is more about rotation of existing funds. Whoever has news, has dropped deeply, or has good liquidity will recover first. But this type of rally usually lacks sustainability compared to real incremental capital inflows, so even when prices rise, you need to watch volume and support on pullbacks.

Fourth, let's look at compliance news. Today, a major U.S. compliant platform obtained investment services authorization in the UK, allowing it to integrate derivatives, stock-related businesses, and crypto services into the same product framework in the future. This type of news may not immediately stimulate short-term coin prices, but it is significant for the industry in the long run: large platforms are inserting crypto assets into traditional financial account systems, indicating that compliance entry points are still expanding.

My view is that this is a long-term narrative positive, not a signal to chase prices tonight. What really impacts is market expectations: going forward, compliant platforms, RWA, stablecoins, ETFs, and derivatives will become increasingly interconnected. For members, treat this only as an improvement in the underlying industry environment, and don't chase a short-term rally based on a compliance headline alone.

Fifth, let's look at security boundaries. According to PeckShield, there were about 40 attacks in the crypto industry in June, with losses of approximately $75.87 million. Although this is slightly lower than May, the amount is still high. In a weak market, security issues are most easily overlooked because everyone is focused on how much has dropped or whether there will be a rebound. But if a DeFi or cross-chain project suffers an incident, the price recovery logic can be directly disrupted.

I think it's important to remind members here: When looking at projects from now on, don't only consider yield and hype. Also look at permissions, treasuries, cross-chain bridges, governance processes, and on-chain transparency. Especially for small-cap projects, security incidents are not just ordinary negative news; many times they directly change the valuation baseline of the project.

So tonight's handling principle is simple: Don't look at how hot the news is; only look at whether it will change your judgment. What can change your judgment are continuous capital inflows back, BTC holding key levels, stablecoin expansion, or security incidents changing valuation baselines. Rumors without confirmed data, official announcements, or on-chain verification should not be used as reasons to chase prices.

Looking back at yesterday: Yesterday, my biggest concern was the lack of sustainability in ETF fund flows. Today, this issue has not yet been resolved; only the first step of repair signals has appeared. The DeFi security boundary mentioned yesterday remains valid based on June attack data. When encountering cross-chain, governance, or treasury-related news in the future, continue to increase sensitivity.

Key points for tomorrow: First, watch whether BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs can continue to see net inflows, verifying whether institutional buying is sustained. Second, watch whether BTC can firmly hold $64k, verifying whether this rebound has shifted from short covering to active buying. Third, watch whether the total stablecoin supply is expanding again, verifying whether altcoins have conditions for broad rotation.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 50, neutral.

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Risk Disclaimer: The above content is only news analysis and market speculation, not investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile. Pay attention to position sizing and stop-losses. Do not go full margin, and do not touch high leverage.

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