What a week we had. Literally a roller coaster between geopolitical panic and sudden relief. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran fell apart after 21 hours without an agreement, and that left everything up in the air again. But before the market fully panicked, something interesting had already happened: oil plunged nearly 15% midweek. Brent was near triple digits on threats in the Strait of Hormuz, but then came the correction. WTI dropped more than 12% in a single day. Gold also fell after breaking the $4,850 mark, although it ended with its third consecutive week of gains thanks to dollar weakness.

The U.S. dollar index fell below 100 and now hovers around 98.50. Non-U.S. currencies strengthened: the euro topped 1.17, the British pound 1.34. The yen lagged around 159. What’s interesting is that this reflects both the dollar’s decline and a genuine recovery in risk appetite.

Wall Street saw a tremendous rebound. The S&P 500 is up for seven straight sessions, the longest streak since October 2025. The Nasdaq marked its best run since August with eight straight positive days. According to historical data, when the market has seven consecutive sessions with gains of at least 7%, in eight of nine cases since 1950 the S&P 500 recorded even larger gains the following month, with an average return of 4.4%. Over the next three months, it rose seven times with an average gain of 10.2%. That suggests bullish momentum tends to continue—something to keep in mind for next week’s stock forecasts.

Now, the geopolitical drama didn’t end. Vance said Iran rejected the U.S. condition on nuclear weapons, so Sunday’s negotiations ended without a pact. He said it was a high-risk dialogue, that he communicated with Trump more than a dozen times during those 21 hours, also with Rubio, Besent, and Commander Cooper. They left a proposal as the final and best offer. Trump had suspended attacks for two weeks, but Vance didn’t clarify what will happen next.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military reported that two destroyers crossed the Strait of Hormuz for mine-removal operations, something that hadn’t happened since the outbreak of the conflict. Trump told the press: we’re clearing the Strait; for me there’s no difference whether there’s an agreement or not. Cooper added that more U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will be added in the coming days. Official Iranian media denied the existence of that joint military command.

Israel and Lebanon will hold direct talks on Tuesday in Washington, even though thousands of Lebanese protested against it on Saturday. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam postponed his trip, but the first dialogue will be at the ambassador level. Israel expects the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah according to the November 2024 ceasefire agreement.

What’s coming is critical. Next week, Fed officials will speak intensively. Goolsbee will participate in a panel on Wednesday, Barr will deliver the opening address of the forum, Harker, Barkin, Collins, and Barr will speak by the fire. Bowman intervenes on Thursday, the Fed publishes the Beige Book on economic conditions on Thursday, and Williams also gives a speech on Thursday. Fed officials will speak intensively, and the Beige Book comes out on Thursday, which will provide key clues.

Currently, the market is moving toward a more hawkish Fed stance, but Bank of America pushes back. The bank maintains a forecast for two rate cuts in 2026 and says the Fed will ultimately ignore supply-driven inflation, weakness in wages, and political dynamics. They see September as a possible turning point when Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair.

The Fed’s internal situation is complex. At the March 18 meeting, they kept rates between 3.50% and 3.75%. The conflict with Iran added inflationary pressure, so they adopted a cautious approach. The March dot plot pointed to only one cut by the end of 2026, not two. PCE inflation forecasts rose to 2.7%. The January minutes were even more aggressive, with officials saying that if inflation stays high, the Fed could be forced to raise rates.

Consumption is weak. Real spending in February rose by only 0.1%, and the annualized pace of the last three months is just 0.8%. The energy price adjustment is putting pressure on household budgets. This dynamic has a double impact: if spending stays soft, it could ease inflation and enable rate cuts, but if energy costs keep inflation high, the Fed could keep rates unchanged.

For investors, the key variable is Warsh. If he steps in in May and shapes the debate at the Fed, market expectations could change quickly. If he suggests easing policy by seeing improving inflation, Bank of America’s forecast gains strength. If he comes across as tough, the expectation of a single cut could be optimistic.

Other central banks are also speaking. Kazuo Ueda from the BOJ visits the U.S. from April 13 to 18 for G20 meetings. Bailey from the BoE participates in a panel on Wednesday at Columbia. Lagarde from the ECB gives a speech on Wednesday. The ECB publishes minutes of the March 19 monetary policy meeting on Thursday, which is crucial. With preliminary March CPI jumping from 1.9% to 2.5%, sentiment shifted markedly. For euro traders, these minutes will be key to gauging how hawkish the ECB is.

Investors will follow Ueda’s speech looking for clues about the next BOJ rate hike. Despite the ceasefire, a hike is still expected in the coming months. In Australia, speeches by senior RBA officials will also be a focus. With broad-based inflation rising, the RBA has already raised rates twice this year. March employment data, released on Thursday, is crucial. If it is strong, it could increase the odds of a third consecutive 25 basis point hike and further support the Australian dollar.

In terms of data, next week will be lighter compared with prior weeks. In the U.S., attention will be on March PPI on Tuesday and industrial and manufacturing production on Thursday. The PPI data is crucial to see how the conflict in the Middle East and energy price increases feed into producer inflation. Prior data already showed consumer inflation rose to 3.3% in March. Economists at Commerzbank say that so far the energy price shock has had limited impact outside the energy sector, but that could change soon.

According to LSEG data, the market expects U.S. rates to remain unchanged until the end of 2026, with a low probability of cuts before year-end. Even if global rates fall, the market anticipates strict monetary policy from major central banks. This year, the ECB is expected to raise rates twice, the Bank of England by an additional 30 basis points, the BOJ has a 50% chance of raising rates this month, and the RBA has a 60% chance of a third consecutive 25 basis point hike in May.

For next week’s stock forecasts, you need to watch closely. The U.K. will release February monthly GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, and the trade balance. If these data show weakness, investors will doubt the wisdom of the BoE continuing to raise rates, especially after the ceasefire. Lower expectations for rate hikes could pressure the pound, though due to weaker the dollar, any decline will be more pronounced in euro/pound.

On gold, after a two-week Iran deal and a third week of gains, both Wall Street and retail investors are more willing to buy again. Colin Cieszynski from SIA Wealth Management comments that gold moved within a range—natural after such a powerful run-up. The price surged almost nonstop from $3,200–$3,300 to $5,300 over six months—a huge increase—so a correction and consolidation were to be expected. He expects it to fluctuate between $4,400 and $5,200. It bounced off the lows and is now in the middle zone. Given that uncertainty from the conflict persists, prices may show large daily swings. But for now, the trend is more sideways than bullish.

Cieszynski clarifies that this sideways range is wide enough to allow moves of hundreds of dollars in either direction, but it’s almost impossible to predict the direction in the short term. It depends on how the conflict progresses. This week, on the day of the ceasefire announcement, gold went wild, but before that—when Trump threatened to wipe out Iran—the price was falling. What matters most is his statements. In this environment, it’s really hard to predict what’s going to happen.

Regarding the latest inflation data, Cieszynski says gold prices have likely already priced it in. Much of the prior rise reflected elevated inflation expectations. But in general, higher inflation makes it harder for central banks to cut rates when the economy enters stagnation. That’s a problem. The last time something similar happened, gold jumped to the moon the way it is now. He warns that the probability of stagflation has increased significantly because disruptions in the energy market can keep prices high for a while. There are real disruptions and delays in supply; key infrastructure has suffered material damage, and repairing it will take time.

Cieszynski maintains a neutral short-term view on gold, but emphasizes that this doesn’t mean a lack of volatility—predicting the direction is impossible. Gold will make big moves, but he doesn’t know which direction, and he doubts others do either. It could change three times in a single day.

Next week on Wall Street, the Q1 2026 earnings season officially kicks off. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and other banking giants will be the first to report numbers, along with BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, and others. Then major tech firms such as TSMC, ASML, Netflix, and others will present data. This round will be key to measuring earnings resilience, demand for AI, and the impact of the macroeconomic backdrop.

FactSet expects the combined EPS of the S&P 500 to grow between 12.5% and 13% year over year, the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, mainly driven by a recovery in investment banking and a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions. But the geopolitical situation will keep attention focused on company guidance.

Banks are the barometer for earnings season. Several giants are expected to see EPS grow significantly year over year, with a focus on investment banking fees, trading revenue, and NII forecasts. Goldman Sachs expected EPS is around 16.39-16.41 dollars, +10%-16% year over year. As a leader in investment banking, it benefits from the global M&A revival. JPMorgan expected EPS is between 5.44 and 5.49 dollars, +7% year over year. As the largest bank, commissions and trading grow steadily; NII rises 8.5%. Citigroup expected EPS is 2.63-2.64 dollars, +24%-34% year over year.

Management guidance for the rest of the year will be crucial. If trading and M&A stay strong, it will improve market confidence; if they mention uncertainty about oil prices, inflation, or rates, banks could see declines. Globally, financial sector revenues are expected to grow 9.8% year over year in Q1.

Outside the financial sector, several high-cap companies will be in focus. TSMC expected EPS is 3.34 dollars. Demand for AI chips remains strong, and expansion of advanced process capacity continues to drive results. ASML expected EPS is 6.64-7.2 dollars, and revenues will meet company guidance. Investment in logic chips and DRAM for AI remains elevated. Netflix expected EPS is 0.76 dollars, with revenues between 12.160 and 12.170 million. Solid subscriber growth and accelerated advertising revenue. Johnson & Johnson expected EPS is 2.68 dollars.

For next week’s stock forecasts, these earnings will be decisive. On Tuesday, April 14, India’s National Stock Exchange will remain closed for Ambedkar Jayanti. Then, with Fed speakers talking intensively, inflation data coming out, and earnings from the giants being released, next week looks like one of those where a lot of the momentum for the rest of the quarter is set. The combination of geopolitics, monetary policy, and corporate results is what anyone looking to understand next week’s stock forecast will be watching for.