Le trimestre le plus chargé de l'histoire ! Le premier trimestre 2026 d'Ethereum a dépassé 200 millions de transactions, pourquoi le prix de la crypto n'a-t-il pas suivi ?

Ethereum’s strong performance in the first quarter of 2026 saw the mainnet transaction volume surpass 200 million for the first time, setting a new record high. Although on-chain activity is lively due to the booming development of Layer 2 and stablecoins, the token price diverges from the fundamentals.

Ethereum delivered an impressive report card in the first quarter of this year, with on-chain activity creating the busiest quarter ever, but even with a recovery in fundamentals, the token price still showed no signs of improvement, disappointing many investors. Is this three-year-long strong comeback a prelude to the next bull cycle, or does it hide underlying concerns?

According to the latest statistics from blockchain data platform Artemis, in the first quarter of 2026, the Ethereum mainnet processed as many as 200.4 million transactions, breaking the 200 million mark for the first time in a single quarter. Looking back at 2023, Ethereum’s quarterly transaction volume once fell to 90 million; in 2024, it hovered between 100 million and 120 million throughout the year.

This wave of on-chain activity revival for Ethereum actually began quietly in mid-2025, with steady growth each quarter. By the first quarter of this year, the transaction volume jumped significantly by 43% compared to the 145 million in Q4 of last year, pulling out a beautiful “U-shaped growth curve” from the bottom in 2023.

However, paradoxically, the market’s fundamental enthusiasm has not been reflected in the token price. Currently, Ether hovers around $2,355, down more than 50% from the peak near $5,000 in August last year. This stark divergence may present a potential opportunity for investors skilled at extracting value from fundamentals.

The main driver behind this surge in transaction flow is mainly attributed to “Layer 2 scaling solutions.” Currently, the two largest Layer 2 networks are Base and Arbitrum, with users flocking to these platforms seeking lower transaction fees. These activities are ultimately reflected on the Ethereum mainnet data through “settlements” and “cross-chain bridges.”

Another major contributor is stablecoins. According to data platform Token Terminal, the total supply of stablecoins on Ethereum has reached a record high of $180 billion, accounting for about 60% of the global stablecoin market.

However, some analysts point out risks: the enthusiasm for Layer 2 may mask concerns over declining mainnet transaction fee revenue. Since Ethereum completed the “Cancun upgrade (Dencun upgrade),” significantly reducing L2 data storage costs, the fees earned per transaction have greatly diminished. In other words, even with a substantial increase in on-chain activity, it cannot directly translate into more token “burning” as in the past, making it difficult to push up the token price directly.

Overall, Ethereum’s on-chain activity has completed a multi-year recovery, which historically tends to lead price movements.

As for whether Ethereum’s record-breaking first quarter signals the start of the next big rally or a top-out, the answer will depend on whether transaction volume can continue to stay above 200 million in Q2; more importantly, this growth momentum must come from new “real users,” not from bot activity creating a false sense of prosperity.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: 《區塊客》
• Original title: 《史上最繁忙一季！以太坊 Q1 交易筆數破 2 億，為何幣價沒跟上？》
• Original author: 區塊妹 MEL